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Archive for the 'Tampa Market Conditions' Category

Tampa Home Prices-Where Are They Now?

August 27th, 2008 categories: Tampa Market Conditions, Tampa Home Buyer Tips

So the much anticipated Case-Shiller Home Price Indices were published yesterday for the month of June, 2007 (there is a 2 month lag). And with it came a very positive headline in the Tampa Tribune today: Tampa Home Prices Stabilize. While the drop in the May to June Tampa index was slightly more than the April to May drop, we’ve now had 2 consecutive months in which the drops in the index are no where near the drops we saw earlier this year and in late 2007 (the year-year drop was about 20%). More evidence that home prices in Tampa are beginning to stabilize, along with sales activity. Below is a graph of the Case-Shiller Tampa numbers for the previous 12 months:

Tampa Market Conditions

See the Case Shiller numbers:

Case-Shiller June 2008 Summary

My take on this? We are not at the bottom certainly. I do think the biggest and fastest of price reductions/falling values are behind us. But there is just too much inventory, especially distressed inventory, to work through. There is also nothing on the horizon to create more demand, and in fact it is arguable that there is more reason to see less demand (interest rates, consumer confidence) going forward. And those who want to buy? Can they qualify? All of this points to more downward pressure on prices.

But the leveling of falling values and the leveling of sales declines is certainly welcome. Both trends should increase buyer confidence.

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Some Good News in Tampa Real Estate Home Sales

August 25th, 2008 categories: Tampa Condos, Tampa Market Conditions, Tampa Home Buyer Tips

News out the Florida Association of Realtors (member) today is that on a statewide basis, home sales in July were about level with July of 2007. Is this more anecdotal evidence that we are indeed seeing a stabilization in the market? It would seem so. In fact there were slightly more (6) existing homes sold in Florida in July of 2008 as opposed to July of 2007.

But as we know residential real estate is extremely local, and Florida is a big state. So is Tampa experiencing the same? In fact we are. But the stability lies in the single family home sector. Condos are another story. For instance: In the City of Tampa, 448 single family homes were sold in July of 2007 while 443 of the same sold in July of 2008. But in focusing on condos we find that 188 condos in Tampa sold in 2007, while only 83 of the same sold in 2008. Not good news for the condo seller, generally speaking of course.

Tampa COndos There were many condos built and many condos converted from apartments in recent years, to meet the demand of the condo buyers that were sucked in to the market as money became easy to obtain (related: Condo Clown). So it stands to reason that the condo market, generally speaking of course, will take somewhat longer to stabilize. Many new condos, especially the converted apartments, were purchased by speculative buyers. The demand from the end-user was never there. Tampa’s condo sales decline for July, year over year, was substantially higher than the state’s decline. The state had a 7% decline in condo sales in July compared to Tampa’s more than 50% decline in condo sales. Wow.

So this news, along with the declining reduction in the Tampa median home price, points to some level of a stabilizing market, at least for single family homes, generally speaking.

Data used is from the Mid-Florida Regional MLS, all brokers/agents included. Data does not include most private non-brokered Tampa home sales.

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Tampa’s Home Price Decline Is Flattening

July 29th, 2008 categories: Tampa Market Conditions

Don’t believe everything you read! Sage advice, especially when it concerns how some of the media report on the real estate market.

It’s the end of the month and with it always comes the much anticipated release of the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report. The headline on Yahoo! Finance is enough to scare most buyers right back across the fence:

Home Prices Drop by Record 15.8% in May

That’s a very misleading headline (my opinion). Home prices did not drop 15.8% in May!

What the headline should say:

Twenty City Home Price Index Falls 15.8% From May 2007 to May 2008

That conveys the truth. Because that’s what really happened. The composite value of homes in 20 cities fell by 15.8% in a year. To say that home prices fell by almost 16% in May is a bunch of BS! (my opinion)

But real estate is local. What’s the value in a composite of 20 cities spread across the USA, if I’m in Tampa? But that’s the media’s way of creating dramatic headlines. Home prices did not drop 15.8% in May!

So what’s really happening in Tampa? Let’s just take the Case-Shiller numbers and graph them. Shall we? Graphs put numbers into perspective and help us to better understand the facts. Below is a chart of the Case-Shiller Tampa numbers from May of 2007 through May of 2008.

The decline is beginning to subside (flatten).
So here are some facts, not some BS headline that conveys a non-truth (my opinion):

Fact: The drop in the Tampa Case-Shiller number from April 2008 to May 2008 (1.36) was the lowest drop since March of 2007.
Fact: Since March of 2008 the drop in the Tampa Case-Shiller index has been slowing.
Fact: The drop in the CS Tampa index from February 2008 to March 2008 (6.05) was the greatest of the current down market.

So maybe the slow down in price declines is only temporary. Time will only tell. But maybe, just maybe, we are approaching, or are at the bottom regarding price declines. But the fact is Home prices did not drop 15.8% in May!

My 2 cents.

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How Long Will It Take To Find A Buyer?

July 28th, 2008 categories: South Tampa, Tampa Market Conditions, Tips for Sellers

I was speaking with a prospective seller client recently and she asked the question that most, if not all, seller’s ask. “How long is it taking to sell a home?” The way that I answer this question is to look at homes in the same neighborhood that have either recently sold or are under contract (pending). Our MLS has a statistic called Days To Contract, which is a measure of the days that the home was listed for sale until going under contract. Of course the numbers are widely ranging, but we can focus on the median as a gauge of how long it will take.

The homes that go under contract quickly are either prime properties or are homes priced where buyers see value, or some combination of both. The ones that take longer to sell most likley had to go through a number of price reductions to find the sweet spot, where buyers saw value. Or maybe the right buyer just had to enter the market. The properties that are overpriced or are not prepared correctly prior to being placed on the market are the ones that are still on the market, expired or withdrawn from the market.

So here are some numbers to consider. For the single family homes in Tampa that are under contract currently, here is what we know:

Total Number of Pending Single Family Homes: 828 (Yes buyers are buying!)
Median Days to Contract: 55
Maximum Days to Contract 492 (That’s a patient seller)
Minimum Days to Contract: 2 (Does that still happen?)
Median List Price: $189,000
High Price: $2,100,000
Low Price: $22,900
MLS Grid with the most pending properties: WJ17 (Palma Ceia Area)

The answer to “how long” depends on a number of factors including how many buyers are currently in the market, property condition, property type, LOCATION, etc. The one thing sellers have the most control over is the preparation of the property in anticipation of placing it on the market for sale. Those who prepare best and price best are rewarded with a relatively low Days to Contract.

Considering a sale? A purchase? Both? Call us: 813-205-1802

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Data used is from the Mid-Florida Regional MLS, all brokers/agents included, and does not include private-non brokered properties for sale.

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Tampa Foreclosures Update

July 23rd, 2008 categories: Tampa Real Estate, Tampa Market Conditions, Short Sale Information

A few months back I posted information regarding the number of foreclosures in Tampa. Time for an update. At that time, the number of Lis Pendens (foreclosure notice) recorded with the County clerk had topped out in February at 1734. Well May sort of blew that number away with a whopping 2032 Lis Pendens recorded for the month. June wasn’t far behind at 1893. To date in July (through the 22nd) we’ve had 1471 notices recorded. So July may just top June and possible May as well.

Tampa Chart Foreclosures

Why are these numbers important? Because this gives me an indication of the number troubled mortgages out there. The Lis Pendens is just the beginning of the foreclosure process. It the first notice that goes out to a homeowner that a lender, HOA, or condo association is initiating a foreclosure. You can assume that there will be further downward pressure on property values in areas where there are many pre-foreclosures. Conversely, you can assume that there will be less of a threat to home values in areas that have little or no foreclosure activity.

In doing some further research there are certain zip codes that have an overwhelming majority of pre-foreclosure listings on our MLS. The 33569 zip leads the way in the number of MLS listings tagged as pre-foreclosure or bank-owned. Others zips with many of these lisitngs include 33647, 33604 and 33615.

By contrast, some Tampa area zips that have very few pre-foreclosure and bank-owned listings (relative to total listings) include 33629, 33606, 33609, 33618.

Considering a purchase? A Sale? Contact us @ 813-205-1802

Data used is from the Clerk of The Circuit Court, Hillsborough County, and from the Mid-Florida Regional MLS.

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